Horn of Africa Civil Wars and instability are becoming more tribal geographically concentrated, spreading from parts of SSC regions, the Makhir, and Awdel across may be across the all the Region (Horn of Africa).
Stabilizing the world’s most vulnerable areas should be a major, IGAD regional foreign policy imperative — and not just a moral one, given that these regions often serve as a haven for tribal Separatists, Secessionists, terrorists and transnational criminals.

Recently Daaroods in Horn of Africa (SSC, DDSI, J/land, NFD, and Puntland) may began organizing themselves into informal groups to fight Northern Tribal Secessionists (Somaliland) after the Isaaq tribal militant groups ( Somaliland) advanced into parts of their regions (SSC regions) in last 7 years.

If the Daaroods uprising against Northern Tribal Secessionists (Somaliland) sounds familiar, then you are hearing echoes of Civil War in Horn of Africa. Dr. J. Elmi, director of Security and Strategic Studies at 5 Regions(1)(DDS, Puntland, Jupaland, Makhir and Khatumo), a think tank group in Horn of Africa says “Popular Committees are popping up across Daarood regions to combat the Northern Tribal secessionists Militiamen in SSC regions. “In light of the recent attacks, it seems that anything is likely to happen, and the situation in SSC regions may be turning into the Iraqi model,” Dr. Elmi says.

Unlike Iraq, however, the Daaroods tribal Popular Committees seems to be getting the big boost that Iraq’s Sunni Awakening groups did. In the past couple of months, the meetings campaign has led local Popular Committees to encourage their support to SSC militants and SSC military movements are advancing to liberate their territories from Isaaq tribal militiamen (Somaliland) and they knew it will took the movement months — with the help of the Popular Committee militias — to take back Xuddun, Lascaanood and Cerigaabo another occupied towns, while Northern Tribal Seccssionts’s morale has broken down because of unstable leadership from their Warlord Siilaanyo.

Popular Committee fighters from Bosaso, Lasqoray, Docmo, Jigjiga, Cerigaabo, Xuddun, Beledxaawo, Caabudwaaq, Afmadow, Siyelow, Dhagaxbuur, have started cooperating with SSC liberation army in their pursuit of Dhulbahante-Warsangheli, claiming that it is their land and they are responsible for protecting it. “My men won’t continue to fight alongside the military. We (Northern Harti) have shown that we can handle Northern Secessionists (Isaaq) ourselves, and we are prepared do it, but not for nothing,” says Popular Committee leader Ahmed Jama from Cerigaabo. Ahmed argues that the tribesmen need to be accommodated soon, before their allegiance shifts to other power brokers in the region. The tension has fueled mutual distrust between the two groups (Daaroods and Isaaqs), leading some Daarood troops to return to SSC regions.

The move was seen as part of Daaroods leader’s attempt to tip the Horn Africa’s balance of power toward themself and away from its top military commanders: the former Brigadier Generals taking the First Armored Division with them. They designated themselves the head of the Daaroods Regional Forces, which is made up of Four Guard brigades and two from the Armored Division.
Yusuf Said, an independent political analyst and Horn of Africa expert, describes Ahmed Jama’s decree as a farsighted measure. “It’s an initial step toward rebuilding the military away from personal loyalties to make it capable of conducting the war against Northern Tribal secessionists (Isaaqs) and their allies al-shabaab militants without parties playing the al-shabaab card as a weapon in their own conflicts,” he says..
Like other observers, Yusuf Said would rather the war against al-shabaab-Somaliland alliance not depend on tribal militias. “The role of the Daaroods Popular Committees has been already initiated and they must be incorporated within the security forces because at the moment, they are militias with independent sub-clan loyalties. They may soon become a source of winning(liberators).”

The problem, however, is that the Somali Federal Government must quickly establish itself as the chief power broker in the SSC regions — otherwise, allegiances cannot be guaranteed. “Like SSC tribal leaders says, people here will change sides (from federalists to tribelists) if they see an opportunity. Life’s tough in conflict zone (SSC), they take what they can get,” says Abdi Yare intelligence official from the area. Though it has been displaced from the cities it once occupied by Secessionists Militiamen Isaaqs) , SSC liberations armies has in the past proved adept at winning local support through a combination of self-determination-rule, the provision of basic necessities and basic payouts to fighters. It is far from implausible that the SSC group will surge back into power in SSC regions.
For International and IGAD, it is much better to prevent crises than to try to contain them later. This means engaging before local conflicts gain a wide dimension, for example. It means addressing communities’ grievances before they take up arms. It means trying to end wars before factions fragment, making peace efforts more difficult.

(1) 5 Regions Think Tank group (DDS, Puntland, Jupaland, Makhir and Khatumo)

By Habon Haji Abdi-East Africa University-Buhoodle Somalia. Contact: habon.haji.abdi@gmail.com